在交通行业，安全风险最低的是飞机(0.01)，其次是火车(0.4)，然后是汽车(2.8)，最高是摩托车(112.6)，次高的是行人(49)。这里的比较是以每十亿乘客公里所引起的平均伤亡人数(2004年的英国数据）。呵呵，所以大家要多称公共交通。就铁路安全来说，最危险的地方是火车站，风险最大的是路人擅入轨道，其次是路人在站内跌倒/滑倒 （英国数据）。国内铁路最危险的据说是level crossings。
风险评估离不开概率。而要降低风险就只能从管理的角度出发，既然没有无风险的东西存在。
有这样一个‘传说’，剑桥有一份大学入学考试问道什么是风险，有学生回答道：这就是风险(This is risk)。万分佩服。
People from the risk society spent 4 years in attempt to define risk and end up with saying it's better not define risk.
ReplyDeleteHaha. Thousands of people have spent decades on this area. For example, riskmetric on finanicial risk. Personally I think it's worthwhile, cos risk is still risk - the potential consequences could be catastrophic
ReplyDeleteI dont have knowledge about financial risk. However I believe there are fundamental differences between safety risk and financial risk, since the later one can generate actual and physical profit while it is not the case to safety risk, at least not obviously. I guess the definitions and measures should be different and attempts to find a common ground for all types of risk are almost impossible mission.
ReplyDeleteYes, we need different risk definitions cos we have different objectives. One is about how to prevent from losses of lives, another is about how to prevent from losses of investment. But in essence risk is still about potential loss, and I think it's worthwhile to learn from the finanical field, as they have spent quite a lot of efforts (at least money) and made some significant progress (to my knowledge).
ReplyDeleteenen, we should never miss any chance of learning from financial sector. The research of risk is more like philosophical problem. Terje Aven was described as a philosopher rather than a scientist, and his viewpoints of risk is really not that easy to catch.
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